# Chance Markets
chance.markets
Chance Markets are fun and simple decentralized prediction market.
#### Take a chance and predict whether AVAX, JOE, and more's price will rise or fall – guess correctly to win!
It's easy to take part:
* Predict if the price of AVAXUSD or JOEUSD will be higher or lower than it was when the “In-Progress” phase starts.
* If you enter an “UP” position, and the “Closed Price” is higher than the “Locked Price” at the end of the In-Progress phase, you win! And if it’s lower, you lose.
* If you enter a “DOWN” position, and the “Closed Price” is higher than the “Locked Price” at the end of the In-Progress phase, you lose! If it’s lower, you win.
Have fun!
### Chance Markets
| Chain | Markets | Oracle |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------- | --------- |
| Avalanche C Chain | AVAXUSD, JOEUSD, BTCUSD, QIUSD, COQUSD | Chainlink |
# predict
The memecoin of Chance Markets
$predict is the memecoin of Chance Markets. It was stealth launched on Bellum Exchange and bonded in under 30 minutes to LFJ (fka Trader Joe).
$predict has very simple tokenomics due to launching on Bellum Exchange. As a community launched memecoin, 99% was launched for community on Bellum and 1% was purchased at launch for Treasury.
The total supply of $predict is 42,000,069 tokens with 100% of the total supply in circulation.
Token Allocations
***Contract Address**: 0xe46b44179db3af934da552b35ff8869e98dc6af5*
### **Important Links for $predict**
# Staking
Coming Soon in collaboration with The Moats by FortiFi. More information will be coming soon.
# .chance Domains
aka Chance Usernames
Chance Domains are an integral part of the Chance Markets platform and Leaderboard.
Each Username lives fully onchain and is minted to custom onchain registry. These domains are represented as an NFT in a users wallet.
Users will be able mint multiple Domains and select an 'Active' Chance Domain to set for their address. Setting a domain to Active enables it for usage and displauy on the Profile and Leaderboard pages.
The .chance Domains can be minted using the $predict token. The cost is currently cost to mint a .chance Domain is a flat 2000 $predict per domain, regardless of length.
*.chance Domains are powered by Zephyr Domains from Janky Studios.*
# Chance Chain
Chance Chain is a sovereign L1 blockchain that will host the future of Chance Markets. Chance Chain is a L1 blockchain built using the Avalanche stack and will host several unique projects and products for Chance Markets.
One of the main features of the Chance Chain ecosystem will be our Custom Oracle System called Chance Oracles. Chance Oracles will enable us to bring a unique data structure onchain for any token, regardless of its liquidity or trading volume metrics. The Chance Oracles look to help bridge the gap for smaller and newer cryptos in the avalanche ecosystem and beyond.
Chance Chain will also host our Custom Prediction Markets. Custom Prediction Markets is a new system to Chance Markets, enabling users to create their own prediction markets. These CPMs will feature a high degree of customizability. This will range from participation setting, to reward distribution automation abilities, to whitelisted assets for prize pools, and more.
Chance Chain launched on the Etna Devnet on Friday, December 6th utilizing the L1Launcher by GoGoPool.
Chance Chain launched as a part of the Retro9000 campaign. You can see our entire application to the program here:
{% embed url="" %}
Chance Chain Retro9000 application
{% endembed %}
# How to Use Daily Markets
Playing Chance Markets lets you test your foresight to earn rewards. Use your market knowledge or gut feeling to predict if the AVAXUSD, JOEUSD, COQUSD or more price will go up or down in the near future. Get it right and you’ll collect a share of the round’s prize pool!
Chance Markets is a new product that we still consider to be in beta. We may make changes in the future to improve Prediction. As always, the Chance Market team will inform users of any changes that will impact how the product works.
Anatomy of a Price Prediction Market
### Accepting terms of the beta
Before you can use Chance Markets, you’ll need to review and accept the terms.
Visit the Chance Markets homepage. You will see a “Welcome!” window explaining that the Prediction product is still in beta.
Read and accept the conditions then click **Continue**.
### Switch between prediction markets
Chance Markets offers two separate prediction markets for every player to choose from. You can play based on the AVAX USD price, betting with AVAX. You can play based on JOE USD price, COQ USD price, QI USD Price, or BTC USD price, all betting with AVAX.
To switch between two prediction markets, simply click or tap the Select Market dropdown on the top left side of the screen next to the price and timer.
Initial Daily Markets on C Chain
### Making a prediction for the next round
The Prediction page shows quite a bit of information. Chance Markets operate initially with Daily rounds. Make your prediction before a round goes live to join in. Each Round has a 12 hour entry window to select Higher or Lower.
#### Checking the timer
To enter a round of Prediction, you'll want to check how long is left in the current round. You'll find the timer in the top-right area.
If the timer is too low your prediction may not confirm in time, so check there's still plenty of time left before you make a prediction (30 seconds should be plenty, but give yourself more time if you're following along with this guide).
#### Predicting the next round
When you're sure you have enough time, you can place your prediction for the next round.
1. In the "Next" section you'll see a green **Enter UP** button and a red **Enter DOWN** button. Click **Enter UP** if you want to predict a rise in price, and click **Enter DOWN** if you want to predict a drop in price.
Each will have a different reward multiplier. The multiplier will change over time as the "Prize Pool" increases depending on people's predictions. The Prize Pool is shown just above the buttons.
We'll choose **Enter UP** for this example.
2. A new window will open. In the window, you'll see "Commit" to commit AVAX for your prediction. Type the number of tokens you would like to commit to your prediction for this round in the field. You can also use the bunny slider or click the percent buttons if you prefer.
If you are playing JOE USD prediction market, at the first game, you will have to click "Enable" to enable the smart contract.
3. Once you've decided the amount to commit, click **Confirm** and confirm your action in your wallet.
The confirm button will fade out as your transaction confirms. This short wait is why we checked the round timer earlier to make sure we would have time to make our prediction.
4. After your transaction confirms, an "ENTERED" message will appear.
There's nothing left to do now but wait for your Prediction round to go live.
### While your entered round is In-Progress
An In-Progress round will last for 12 hours. You can watch the price update during the 12 hours if you'd like.
You cannot change your prediction during an In-Progress round, however. You are locked into your prediction from earlier.
### Once your entered round finishes
After 12 hours as the In-Progress round, your entered round will finish. Everything is automatic, so there's nothing you need to do to end the round.
#### Seeing the results
1. As the 12 hours finish, the "In-Progress" section will change to "Calculating". Calculating the results only takes a moment.
2. After a short wait, the finished round will move left and say "Expired". The result of the round will display with either UP colored in green, or DOWN colored in red.
3. If you've been busy and missed the results, you can scroll back a few rounds by clicking the **left arrow** on the purple bunny cards.
#### Seeing results for older rounds
If you want to see the results for rounds you've entered that are older than a few rounds, you'll need to follow the steps below to find the results.
1. Click on the **reversing clock icon** next to the round timer.
2. A "History" panel will open. By default, you should see your most recent round at the top of the list. Click anywhere on the round to see more information.
#### Collecting any winnings
1. If you won your entered round, a **Collect Winnings** button will appear next to a gold trophy. Click the button.
2. A new window will appear showing the amount of winnings you can collect with a **Confirm** button. Click the button and confirm the action in your wallet.
3. Your token winnings will now be in your wallet.
#### Collecting winnings from older rounds
Sometimes you may be away from Chance Markets page for a while or may have forgotten to collect winnings from older rounds. You can still collect winnings owed to you from older rounds at any time.
1. Find more information on past rounds you've entered by clicking on the **reversing clock icon** next to the round timer.
2. A "History" panel will open. You can click "Uncollected" to view all rounds you've not collected the winnings for yet (click a the transaction if you want to see more details). Click the **Collect** button.
3. A new window will appear showing the amount of winnings you can collect with a **Confirm** button. Click the button and confirm the action in your wallet.
4. Your winnings will now be in your wallet.
### Viewing historic profit and loss data
If you'd like to see how you've done overall in Prediction, you can view PNL (Profit and Loss) data whenever you'd like.
1\. On the Prediction page, click the **reversing clock icon** next to the round timer. A "History" panel will open.
2\. On the history panel, click the **PNL** tab.
The tab will open with stats for your historic performance in Prediction, including your net results, average return, best round, and other information.
3\. You can click the **View Reclaimed & Won** button at the bottom of the PNL tab to view those transactions on the snowscan explorer.
That's all there is to using Prediction. Good luck making the right calls!
# Frequently Asked Questions
### General Questions
#### What’s the Chance Markets contract address?
Verified contract address:
*Factory:*
*AVAX*:
*JOE:*
#### Is there a time limit before I can collect my winnings?
No, you’ll be able to collect your winnings at any time in the future.
#### How is the payout calculated?
* Payout Ratio for UP Pool = Total Value of Both Pools ÷ Value of UP Pool
* Payout Ratio for DOWN Pool = Total Value of Both Pools ÷ Value of DOWN Pool
For example, if there’s 15 AVAX in the DOWN side of a round, and the overall prize pool is 150 AVAX, the DOWN payout ratio will be (150/15) = 10x.
* Payout Amount = Payout Ratio × Position × (1 - Treasury Fee)
In the above case, if the round ends on a DOWN result, if you committed 2 AVAX to a DOWN position, you’d get a payout of (2\*10) × (1-0.03) = 19.4 AVAX. Your profit would be 17.4 AVAX (19.4 - 2).
The treasury fee is currently set at 3%: this may be subject to changes, which would be announced on Chance Markets’s official communication channels.
#### **What are the fees?**
3% of each round's total pot will go to the treasury.
#### What are you using for your price feed?
Chance Markets uses two sources for our price feeds. They each have their own purpose within the prediction market:
**ChainLink Oracle**
* Used for the Lock price and End price of each prediction market round. This updates in intervals of 20 seconds.
* Our prediction contract uses the ChainLink Oracle price feed on the Avalanche C Chain to set the prices used to dictate whether a user has won or not.
* Used for the "Chainlink" chart on the interface.
**Binance**
* Used for real-time price updates on the Chance Market interface.
* Used for the "Market View" chart on the interface.
Since we’re using two different price feeds, the real-time price updates from Binance and the ChainLink Oracle price may differ by a small amount. However, they shouldn’t vary significantly.
#### The round's result changed after the round ended! Why?
Sometimes, after a round closes, the final result may be different from the last result shown while the round was live. If you watch a round end on "DOWN", it may appear to flip to "UP" a few seconds later.
This is because we use the Oracle price feed to determine the final outcome of a round. The period between the end of one round and the start of the next is 30 seconds, but the Oracle refreshes every 20 seconds. It's possible that during this short period, the Oracle might send an update while the transaction to trigger the next round is being minted. This can appear to "flip" the outcome of the previous round.
### About Positions
#### **What if no one enters an opposing position?**
If only one side of a round has positions entered into it, then:
* If users win, users may claim their funds from the prize pool after deducting 3% treasury fee.
* If users lose, the losing funds will be sent to the treasury.
For example:
User A enters an UP position, while no one else enters a DOWN position. User A loses, and there are no opposing positions for the winnings to be paid out to. Funds are sent to treasury.
User B enters an UP position, while no one else enters a DOWN position. User B wins, and there are no opposing positions in the prize pool. User B can claim 97% of the entered funds back, rest 3% are charged as treasury fee.
#### **What happens if the Locked Price and Closed Price are the exact same?**
In the very rare occurrence that the Locked Price is exactly the same as the Closed Price, no one wins, and all funds entered into positions will be sent to the treasury.
#### **Can I change or remove my position?**
No. Once you enter a position, you can NOT change the direction, add to, or remove your position. It's locked in, so make sure you're 100% happy with your position direction before confirming.
### Market Pauses
#### What does it mean when markets are paused?
Markets are paused when there are conditions which affect the reliability of the contract. Markets being paused means that no bets will be taking place for any rounds.
#### What causes Chance Market Predictions market to pause?
The prediction market will pause under the following conditions:
1. The prediction contract has been unable to obtain the price from the ChainLink oracle due to the oracle not having posted the price at the time the round has ended.
2. The prediction contract has been unable to execute an action (ending a round or getting a price from the oracle) due to the tx being stuck in the mempool for longer than 15 blocks.
#### When will the markets resume after being paused?
The markets will resume when an admin manually resumes the market.
#### What happens to my position if the market pauses?
If the markets pause while you have a live position, your funds will be available to reclaim, the same way as you would normally claim your winnings.
To reclaim funds, you’ll need to pay some gas fees. We can’t compensate you for the gas fees, so please bear this small risk in mind before participating.
# Contributors
## What are Contributors?
Chance Markets is a decentralized platform that is not reliant on any one party, entity, or person to operate. Chance Markets is supported by a number of independent contributors - entities supporting the forward progress of the Markets. Contriubtors can get involved in a range of ways from development, branding, marketing, community building, or more. To get involved or be added as a contributor, please join our Discord.
Chance Markets is community driven and is not owned or managed by one entity or party.
## Core Contributors
#### Branding Partner
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#### Development Partner
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#### Platform Partner
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# Dev Resources
### Contracts - A Pancakeswap Predictions v2 Fork
### Predictions v2 Contract Audit
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# Media & Branding Kit
There is a unique set of logos, icons, and fonts for each individual aspect of the Chance Markets ecosystem, including the Chance Market Prediction Markets, the Chance Chain, and the $predict token.
Please refer to each individual kit and guideline for usage of any branding or images relating to Chance Markets or its individual products.
## Chance Markets
Main LogosIconsAlternate IconsFonts Only
Full Open-sourced font found [here](https://www.fontspace.com/super-funky-font-f100518).
## Chance Chain
Main LogosAlternate LogosIconsFonts Only
Full Open-sourced font found [here](https://www.fontspace.com/quantum-font-f83191).
## $predict Token
The ticker ($predict) is always to be written in lowercase. $PREDICT is incorrect and against branding guidelines.
*$predict = Good*
*$PREDICT = Bad*
IconFont
Full Open-sourced font found [here](https://www.fontspace.com/super-funky-font-f100518).
## .Chance Domains
LogosFont
Full Open-sourced font found [here](broken://spaces/sY7WPfO0qiowxWxuMtUu/pages/I3AheHGX37CJ8cxqaq1J).